**Current forecasts from Turkish meteorological sources and international models indicate an overnight low near 15°C in Ankara on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 90% implied probability for that exact outcome.** Seasonal norms for mid-September place typical minimum temperatures at 13–15°C, driven by radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent hourly data show temperatures bottoming out around 14–15°C in the early morning hours without significant deviations from model consensus. The 10% probability assigned to 10°C or below reflects the low likelihood of anomalous cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while higher outcomes remain improbable given the established cooling trend. No major weather systems or measurement revisions have altered the outlook in the past 48 hours, leaving the market-implied odds consistent with official guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日安卡拉最低溫度？
9月18日安卡拉最低溫度？
15°C 100%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$378 交易量
$378 交易量
2026-09-18
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或以上
否
15°C 100%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$378 交易量
$378 交易量
2026-09-18
10°C或以下
$60 交易量
否
11°C
$0 交易量
否
12°C
$0 交易量
否
13°C
$73 交易量
否
14°C
$25 交易量
否
15°C
$13 交易量
是
16°C
$51 交易量
否
17°C
$41 交易量
否
18°C
$41 交易量
否
19°C
$37 交易量
否
20°C或以上
$37 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Turkish meteorological sources and international models indicate an overnight low near 15°C in Ankara on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 90% implied probability for that exact outcome.**
Seasonal norms for mid-September place typical minimum temperatures at 13–15°C, driven by radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent hourly data show temperatures bottoming out around 14–15°C in the early morning hours without significant deviations from model consensus. The 10% probability assigned to 10°C or below reflects the low likelihood of anomalous cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while higher outcomes remain improbable given the established cooling trend. No major weather systems or measurement revisions have altered the outlook in the past 48 hours, leaving the market-implied odds consistent with official guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$378結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Turkish meteorological sources and international models indicate an overnight low near 15°C in Ankara on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 90% implied probability for that exact outcome.**
Seasonal norms for mid-September place typical minimum temperatures at 13–15°C, driven by radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent hourly data show temperatures bottoming out around 14–15°C in the early morning hours without significant deviations from model consensus. The 10% probability assigned to 10°C or below reflects the low likelihood of anomalous cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while higher outcomes remain improbable given the established cooling trend. No major weather systems or measurement revisions have altered the outlook in the past 48 hours, leaving the market-implied odds consistent with official guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$378結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Current forecasts from Turkish meteorological sources and international models indicate an overnight low near 15°C in Ankara on September 18, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 90% implied probability for that exact outcome.** Seasonal norms for mid-September place typical minimum temperatures at 13–15°C, driven by radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Recent hourly data show temperatures bottoming out around 14–15°C in the early morning hours without significant deviations from model consensus. The 10% probability assigned to 10°C or below reflects the low likelihood of anomalous cold advection or clear-sky extremes, while higher outcomes remain improbable given the established cooling trend. No major weather systems or measurement revisions have altered the outlook in the past 48 hours, leaving the market-implied odds consistent with official guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions