**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月20日安卡拉最低溫度？
9月20日安卡拉最低溫度？
14°C 100%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$12,181 交易量
$12,181 交易量
2026-09-20
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或更高
否
14°C 100%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$12,181 交易量
$12,181 交易量
2026-09-20
10°C或以下
$91 交易量
否
11°C
$30 交易量
否
12°C
$187 交易量
否
13°C
$680 交易量
否
14°C
$10,145 交易量
是
15°C
$542 交易量
否
16°C
$91 交易量
否
17°C
$91 交易量
否
18°C
$122 交易量
否
19°C
$101 交易量
否
20°C或更高
$101 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$12,181結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,181結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions