**Forecast models and official guidance from agencies like China's Meteorological Administration project a minimum temperature of 18°C for Beijing on September 3, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.8°C and current observations of clear skies with overnight lows near 18–20°C (66–68°F).** This consensus stems from stable high-pressure conditions and light winds limiting nocturnal cooling, with daytime highs around 31–33°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders' confidence in these verified forecasts and model runs, which show minimal deviation expected. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or station-specific measurement variance could shift the recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup and proximity to resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日北京最低溫度？
9月3日北京最低溫度？
18°C 99.5%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$2,515 交易量
$2,515 交易量
2026-09-03
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
18°C 99.5%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$2,515 交易量
$2,515 交易量
2026-09-03
13°C or below
$232 交易量
No
14°C
$25 交易量
No
15°C
$271 交易量
No
16°C
$255 交易量
No
17°C
$406 交易量
No
18°C
$419 交易量
Yes
19°C
$315 交易量
No
20°C
$147 交易量
No
21°C
$127 交易量
No
22°C
$106 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$211 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from agencies like China's Meteorological Administration project a minimum temperature of 18°C for Beijing on September 3, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.8°C and current observations of clear skies with overnight lows near 18–20°C (66–68°F).** This consensus stems from stable high-pressure conditions and light winds limiting nocturnal cooling, with daytime highs around 31–33°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders' confidence in these verified forecasts and model runs, which show minimal deviation expected. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or station-specific measurement variance could shift the recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,515結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from agencies like China's Meteorological Administration project a minimum temperature of 18°C for Beijing on September 3, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.8°C and current observations of clear skies with overnight lows near 18–20°C (66–68°F).** This consensus stems from stable high-pressure conditions and light winds limiting nocturnal cooling, with daytime highs around 31–33°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders' confidence in these verified forecasts and model runs, which show minimal deviation expected. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or station-specific measurement variance could shift the recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,515結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**Forecast models and official guidance from agencies like China's Meteorological Administration project a minimum temperature of 18°C for Beijing on September 3, 2026, aligning closely with the historical average low of 18.8°C and current observations of clear skies with overnight lows near 18–20°C (66–68°F).** This consensus stems from stable high-pressure conditions and light winds limiting nocturnal cooling, with daytime highs around 31–33°C. Market-implied odds reflect traders' confidence in these verified forecasts and model runs, which show minimal deviation expected. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or station-specific measurement variance could shift the recorded low, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup and proximity to resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions