Current meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 5 will reach approximately 18°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling after a daytime high near 32–34°C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 18.4°C for the date, supporting the market's strong 93% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official observations from central stations will determine resolution, with thresholds sensitive to precise timing of the daily minimum. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects could push the recorded low higher, while rapid cooling under drier air might test lower bins. Updated model runs and station data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日北京最低溫度？
9月5日北京最低溫度？
18°C 99.5%
17°C 1.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
$1,809 交易量
$1,809 交易量
2026-09-05
14°C或以下
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
是
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C或更高
否
18°C 99.5%
17°C 1.0%
14°C或以下 <1%
15°C <1%
$1,809 交易量
$1,809 交易量
2026-09-05
14°C或以下
$67 交易量
否
15°C
$67 交易量
否
16°C
$67 交易量
否
17°C
$116 交易量
否
18°C
$648 交易量
是
19°C
$347 交易量
否
20°C
$317 交易量
否
21°C
$45 交易量
否
22°C
$45 交易量
否
23°C
$45 交易量
否
24°C或更高
$45 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 5 will reach approximately 18°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling after a daytime high near 32–34°C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 18.4°C for the date, supporting the market's strong 93% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official observations from central stations will determine resolution, with thresholds sensitive to precise timing of the daily minimum. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects could push the recorded low higher, while rapid cooling under drier air might test lower bins. Updated model runs and station data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,809結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 5 will reach approximately 18°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling after a daytime high near 32–34°C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 18.4°C for the date, supporting the market's strong 93% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official observations from central stations will determine resolution, with thresholds sensitive to precise timing of the daily minimum. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects could push the recorded low higher, while rapid cooling under drier air might test lower bins. Updated model runs and station data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,809結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Current meteorological forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 5 will reach approximately 18°C under clear skies, light southerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling after a daytime high near 32–34°C. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 18.4°C for the date, supporting the market's strong 93% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official observations from central stations will determine resolution, with thresholds sensitive to precise timing of the daily minimum. Unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects could push the recorded low higher, while rapid cooling under drier air might test lower bins. Updated model runs and station data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions