**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 25°C minimum in Tokyo on August 20 reflects current official forecasts and typical late-summer conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project an overnight low near 24–25°C under a strengthening Pacific high, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high humidity limiting radiational cooling. This aligns with Tokyo’s August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–25°C amid urban heat retention and 75–80% relative humidity that prevents sharp nighttime drops. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky enhancement expected to push readings lower. The 0.1% odds on outcomes below 24°C or above 26°C capture only low-probability deviations, such as an unforecasted shower increasing evaporative cooling or a brief clear period allowing extra heat loss. With the day well advanced and observations tracking the forecast closely, trader consensus centers on the 25°C threshold as the resolution outcome most consistent with verified data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月20日東京最低溫度？
8月20日東京最低溫度？
25°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$19,081 交易量
$19,081 交易量
2026-08-20
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
是
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
否
25°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$19,081 交易量
$19,081 交易量
2026-08-20
20°C或以下
$1,782 交易量
否
21°C
$576 交易量
否
22°C
$1,783 交易量
否
23°C
$1,362 交易量
否
24°C
$2,061 交易量
否
25°C
$3,459 交易量
是
26°C
$3,214 交易量
否
27°C
$2,352 交易量
否
28°C
$378 交易量
否
29°C
$263 交易量
否
30°C或以上
$1,851 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 25°C minimum in Tokyo on August 20 reflects current official forecasts and typical late-summer conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project an overnight low near 24–25°C under a strengthening Pacific high, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high humidity limiting radiational cooling. This aligns with Tokyo’s August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–25°C amid urban heat retention and 75–80% relative humidity that prevents sharp nighttime drops.
Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky enhancement expected to push readings lower. The 0.1% odds on outcomes below 24°C or above 26°C capture only low-probability deviations, such as an unforecasted shower increasing evaporative cooling or a brief clear period allowing extra heat loss. With the day well advanced and observations tracking the forecast closely, trader consensus centers on the 25°C threshold as the resolution outcome most consistent with verified data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$19,081結束日期
2026-08-20市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 25°C minimum in Tokyo on August 20 reflects current official forecasts and typical late-summer conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project an overnight low near 24–25°C under a strengthening Pacific high, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high humidity limiting radiational cooling. This aligns with Tokyo’s August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–25°C amid urban heat retention and 75–80% relative humidity that prevents sharp nighttime drops.
Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky enhancement expected to push readings lower. The 0.1% odds on outcomes below 24°C or above 26°C capture only low-probability deviations, such as an unforecasted shower increasing evaporative cooling or a brief clear period allowing extra heat loss. With the day well advanced and observations tracking the forecast closely, trader consensus centers on the 25°C threshold as the resolution outcome most consistent with verified data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$19,081結束日期
2026-08-20市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 25°C minimum in Tokyo on August 20 reflects current official forecasts and typical late-summer conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project an overnight low near 24–25°C under a strengthening Pacific high, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high humidity limiting radiational cooling. This aligns with Tokyo’s August climatology, where average minima hover around 24–25°C amid urban heat retention and 75–80% relative humidity that prevents sharp nighttime drops. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky enhancement expected to push readings lower. The 0.1% odds on outcomes below 24°C or above 26°C capture only low-probability deviations, such as an unforecasted shower increasing evaporative cooling or a brief clear period allowing extra heat loss. With the day well advanced and observations tracking the forecast closely, trader consensus centers on the 25°C threshold as the resolution outcome most consistent with verified data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions