Trader consensus prices GERB-SDS securing 50-59 seats at over 87% implied probability in Sunday's snap parliamentary election for Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly, reflecting consistent April polls showing the center-right coalition at 19-22% support amid a fragmented field led by Progressive Bulgaria at 31-32%. Recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) and CAM (April 14) project 55-65 seats under proportional representation, but traders discount toward the lower 50s due to voter fatigue from eight elections since 2021, borderline thresholds for smaller parties like BSP and MECh, and historical polling volatility. The tight 50-54 vs. 55-59 split persists on uncertainty over turnout and minor party vote splits; higher participation could boost GERB-SDS via loyal base consolidation, while Progressive Bulgaria momentum or low turnout might compress seats further, complicating post-election coalition negotiations in a likely hung parliament.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於50-54 44%
55-59 42%
65-69 15%
少於50 7.2%
$34,048 交易量
$34,048 交易量
2026-04-19
少於50
7%
50-54
42%
55-59
38%
60-64
3%
65-69
15%
70+
7%
50-54 44%
55-59 42%
65-69 15%
少於50 7.2%
$34,048 交易量
$34,048 交易量
2026-04-19
少於50
$1,880 交易量
7%
50-54
$358 交易量
42%
55-59
$7,684 交易量
38%
60-64
$20,102 交易量
3%
65-69
$2,836 交易量
15%
70+
$1,188 交易量
7%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus prices GERB-SDS securing 50-59 seats at over 87% implied probability in Sunday's snap parliamentary election for Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly, reflecting consistent April polls showing the center-right coalition at 19-22% support amid a fragmented field led by Progressive Bulgaria at 31-32%. Recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) and CAM (April 14) project 55-65 seats under proportional representation, but traders discount toward the lower 50s due to voter fatigue from eight elections since 2021, borderline thresholds for smaller parties like BSP and MECh, and historical polling volatility. The tight 50-54 vs. 55-59 split persists on uncertainty over turnout and minor party vote splits; higher participation could boost GERB-SDS via loyal base consolidation, while Progressive Bulgaria momentum or low turnout might compress seats further, complicating post-election coalition negotiations in a likely hung parliament.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
交易量
$34,048結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus prices GERB-SDS securing 50-59 seats at over 87% implied probability in Sunday's snap parliamentary election for Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly, reflecting consistent April polls showing the center-right coalition at 19-22% support amid a fragmented field led by Progressive Bulgaria at 31-32%. Recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) and CAM (April 14) project 55-65 seats under proportional representation, but traders discount toward the lower 50s due to voter fatigue from eight elections since 2021, borderline thresholds for smaller parties like BSP and MECh, and historical polling volatility. The tight 50-54 vs. 55-59 split persists on uncertainty over turnout and minor party vote splits; higher participation could boost GERB-SDS via loyal base consolidation, while Progressive Bulgaria momentum or low turnout might compress seats further, complicating post-election coalition negotiations in a likely hung parliament.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$34,048結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices GERB-SDS securing 50-59 seats at over 87% implied probability in Sunday's snap parliamentary election for Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly, reflecting consistent April polls showing the center-right coalition at 19-22% support amid a fragmented field led by Progressive Bulgaria at 31-32%. Recent surveys like CAR (April 3-14) and CAM (April 14) project 55-65 seats under proportional representation, but traders discount toward the lower 50s due to voter fatigue from eight elections since 2021, borderline thresholds for smaller parties like BSP and MECh, and historical polling volatility. The tight 50-54 vs. 55-59 split persists on uncertainty over turnout and minor party vote splits; higher participation could boost GERB-SDS via loyal base consolidation, while Progressive Bulgaria momentum or low turnout might compress seats further, complicating post-election coalition negotiations in a likely hung parliament.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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