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政治·中東

特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？

Market icon
政治·中東

特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？

$26,383,875 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$26,383,875 交易量

Polymarket

4月15日

$9,284,807 交易量

<1%

4月21日

$1,102,219 交易量

20%

4月30日

$5,226,316 交易量

43%

5月31日

$336,353 交易量

74%

6月30日

$1,925,043 交易量

83%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's repeated signals of winding down U.S. military operations against Iran—launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership—have not yet materialized into a formal announcement, as airstrikes, a Strait of Hormuz blockade, and sanctions continue amid stalled diplomacy. Over the past week, ceasefire talks collapsed in Islamabad after Iran rejected a U.S. proposal for a 20-year uranium enrichment pause in exchange for asset releases; yesterday, Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic war powers resolution seeking to limit the campaign. Diplomats are preparing a new round of negotiations, while U.S. strikes have reportedly destroyed 80-90% of Iran's air defenses and ballistic missile production, though capabilities persist and Israeli operations loom as potential escalators. Trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by summer, tempered by diplomatic hurdles and congressional dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$26,383,875
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's repeated signals of winding down U.S. military operations against Iran—launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership—have not yet materialized into a formal announcement, as airstrikes, a Strait of Hormuz blockade, and sanctions continue amid stalled diplomacy. Over the past week, ceasefire talks collapsed in Islamabad after Iran rejected a U.S. proposal for a 20-year uranium enrichment pause in exchange for asset releases; yesterday, Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic war powers resolution seeking to limit the campaign. Diplomats are preparing a new round of negotiations, while U.S. strikes have reportedly destroyed 80-90% of Iran's air defenses and ballistic missile production, though capabilities persist and Israeli operations loom as potential escalators. Trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by summer, tempered by diplomatic hurdles and congressional dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$26,383,875
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 4:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6月30日" at 83%, followed by "5月31日" at 74%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？" has generated $26.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？" is "6月30日" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5月31日" at 74%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "特朗普宣布結束對伊朗的軍事行動... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.