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2027年美國債務違約？

Market icon

2027年美國債務違約？

12月 31

12月 31

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$14,699 交易量

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$14,699 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The U.S. debt ceiling, raised to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed by President Trump, provides substantial headroom with gross national debt at $38.9 trillion as of early March 2026, per Joint Economic Committee data. Congress recently finalized FY2026 appropriations in February, passing multiple funding bills and averting shutdowns through bipartisan compromise. CBO projections indicate deficits averaging $2 trillion annually through 2036, with the limit potentially reached in 2027, but Treasury's extraordinary measures and historical precedent—79 successful increases since 1960 without default—bolster trader consensus at 95% "No." President Trump's April 3 FY2027 budget proposal for non-defense cuts signals fiscal restraint, though political gridlock or unexpected spending surges could prompt earlier action via suspension or reconciliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$14,699
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The U.S. debt ceiling, raised to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed by President Trump, provides substantial headroom with gross national debt at $38.9 trillion as of early March 2026, per Joint Economic Committee data. Congress recently finalized FY2026 appropriations in February, passing multiple funding bills and averting shutdowns through bipartisan compromise. CBO projections indicate deficits averaging $2 trillion annually through 2036, with the limit potentially reached in 2027, but Treasury's extraordinary measures and historical precedent—79 successful increases since 1960 without default—bolster trader consensus at 95% "No." President Trump's April 3 FY2027 budget proposal for non-defense cuts signals fiscal restraint, though political gridlock or unexpected spending surges could prompt earlier action via suspension or reconciliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$14,699
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年美國債務違約？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2027年違約債務嗎？" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年美國債務違約？" has generated $14.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年美國債務違約？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2027年美國債務違約？" is "美國會在2027年違約債務嗎？" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2027年美國債務違約？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.