Recent congressional action via the 2025 reconciliation bill raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing borrowing authority well into 2027 as gross federal debt approaches $40 trillion. Traders assign 97.4 percent probability to no default by year-end 2027 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date, extraordinary measures typically extend solvency by six to nine months, and the dollar’s reserve status plus sustained Treasury demand create powerful incentives to avoid payment disruptions. A narrow set of developments could still shift odds, including an unusually protracted 2027 standoff that exhausts cash reserves before December 31 or an unforeseen revenue collapse that accelerates the breach.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年美國債務違約？
2027年美國債務違約？
是
3% 機率
$16,315 交易量
$16,315 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 機率
$16,315 交易量
$16,315 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action via the 2025 reconciliation bill raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing borrowing authority well into 2027 as gross federal debt approaches $40 trillion. Traders assign 97.4 percent probability to no default by year-end 2027 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date, extraordinary measures typically extend solvency by six to nine months, and the dollar’s reserve status plus sustained Treasury demand create powerful incentives to avoid payment disruptions. A narrow set of developments could still shift odds, including an unusually protracted 2027 standoff that exhausts cash reserves before December 31 or an unforeseen revenue collapse that accelerates the breach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$16,315結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent congressional action via the 2025 reconciliation bill raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing borrowing authority well into 2027 as gross federal debt approaches $40 trillion. Traders assign 97.4 percent probability to no default by year-end 2027 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date, extraordinary measures typically extend solvency by six to nine months, and the dollar’s reserve status plus sustained Treasury demand create powerful incentives to avoid payment disruptions. A narrow set of developments could still shift odds, including an unusually protracted 2027 standoff that exhausts cash reserves before December 31 or an unforeseen revenue collapse that accelerates the breach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$16,315結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent congressional action via the 2025 reconciliation bill raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing borrowing authority well into 2027 as gross federal debt approaches $40 trillion. Traders assign 97.4 percent probability to no default by year-end 2027 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date, extraordinary measures typically extend solvency by six to nine months, and the dollar’s reserve status plus sustained Treasury demand create powerful incentives to avoid payment disruptions. A narrow set of developments could still shift odds, including an unusually protracted 2027 standoff that exhausts cash reserves before December 31 or an unforeseen revenue collapse that accelerates the breach.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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