Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-359 times during March 27-April 3, 2026, with those ranges sharing top implied probabilities around 11.5%, driven by his sustained high-volume X activity averaging 40-50 posts daily in recent months amid political endorsements and Tesla/SpaceX updates. This marks a sharp rise from pre-2022 levels, fueled by his platform ownership and real-time engagement style, as seen in election-season peaks exceeding 500 weekly posts. Closely matched leaders hinge on event catalysts like potential regulatory news or launches that week, versus quieter periods dipping below 300; historical patterns show volatility tied to controversies, keeping lower ranges viable but trailing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於300-319 12%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 11%
$122,649 交易量
$122,649 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
4%
240-259
6%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
4%
460-479
1%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 11%
$122,649 交易量
$122,649 交易量
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
4%
240-259
6%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
4%
460-479
1%
480-499
2%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-359 times during March 27-April 3, 2026, with those ranges sharing top implied probabilities around 11.5%, driven by his sustained high-volume X activity averaging 40-50 posts daily in recent months amid political endorsements and Tesla/SpaceX updates. This marks a sharp rise from pre-2022 levels, fueled by his platform ownership and real-time engagement style, as seen in election-season peaks exceeding 500 weekly posts. Closely matched leaders hinge on event catalysts like potential regulatory news or launches that week, versus quieter periods dipping below 300; historical patterns show volatility tied to controversies, keeping lower ranges viable but trailing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions