Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1400-1750 # of Elon Musk tweets in May 2026, with the 1600-1679 bin leading at 19.2% implied probability, reflecting his recent surge to 40-60 daily posts amid political activism and X platform tweaks. Historical data shows peaks exceeding 1500 monthly during high-engagement periods like the 2024 election cycle, but dips below 1000 in quieter months, fueling the tight race among top bins—differentiated by anticipated Tesla launches or Mars updates driving viral threads. Key uncertainty stems from Elon's unpredictable responsiveness to global events and algorithm changes favoring his content, with resolution hinging on official X analytics for original posts by @elonmusk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於1480-1519 18.2%
1320-1359 18.1%
1560-1599 17.6%
1040-1079 17.2%
$45,810 交易量
$45,810 交易量
<20
1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
17%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
12%
1240-1279
13%
1280-1319
15%
1320-1359
18%
1360-1399
15%
1400-1439
16%
1440-1479
14%
1480-1519
18%
1520-1559
10%
1560-1599
18%
1600-1679
19%
1680-1759
18%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
1%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1480-1519 18.2%
1320-1359 18.1%
1560-1599 17.6%
1040-1079 17.2%
$45,810 交易量
$45,810 交易量
<20
1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
17%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
2%
1200-1239
12%
1240-1279
13%
1280-1319
15%
1320-1359
18%
1360-1399
15%
1400-1439
16%
1440-1479
14%
1480-1519
18%
1520-1559
10%
1560-1599
18%
1600-1679
19%
1680-1759
18%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
1%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1400-1750 # of Elon Musk tweets in May 2026, with the 1600-1679 bin leading at 19.2% implied probability, reflecting his recent surge to 40-60 daily posts amid political activism and X platform tweaks. Historical data shows peaks exceeding 1500 monthly during high-engagement periods like the 2024 election cycle, but dips below 1000 in quieter months, fueling the tight race among top bins—differentiated by anticipated Tesla launches or Mars updates driving viral threads. Key uncertainty stems from Elon's unpredictable responsiveness to global events and algorithm changes favoring his content, with resolution hinging on official X analytics for original posts by @elonmusk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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