Following the collapse of first-ever direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance—the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan remains fragile amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sticking points include the length of Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium (US demands 20 years, Iran offers five), missile program limits, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees. Diplomats are arranging a second round, potentially within days in Islamabad or Geneva, as President Trump signals willingness to resume amid domestic pressure to de-escalate. These unresolved core demands keep permanent deal prospects dim, with escalation risks tied to the impending ceasefire expiration.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$8,064,917 交易量
2026-05-31
4月22日
18%
4月30日
38%
5月31日
60%
6月30日
68%
$8,064,917 交易量
4月22日
$5,337,837 交易量
18%
4月30日
$1,498,748 交易量
38%
5月31日
$990,130 交易量
60%
6月30日
$239,037 交易量
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the collapse of first-ever direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance—the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan remains fragile amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sticking points include the length of Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium (US demands 20 years, Iran offers five), missile program limits, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees. Diplomats are arranging a second round, potentially within days in Islamabad or Geneva, as President Trump signals willingness to resume amid domestic pressure to de-escalate. These unresolved core demands keep permanent deal prospects dim, with escalation risks tied to the impending ceasefire expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$8,064,917結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following the collapse of first-ever direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance—the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan remains fragile amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sticking points include the length of Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium (US demands 20 years, Iran offers five), missile program limits, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees. Diplomats are arranging a second round, potentially within days in Islamabad or Geneva, as President Trump signals willingness to resume amid domestic pressure to de-escalate. These unresolved core demands keep permanent deal prospects dim, with escalation risks tied to the impending ceasefire expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,064,917結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the collapse of first-ever direct US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12—after 21 hours of negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance—the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan remains fragile amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sticking points include the length of Iran's nuclear enrichment moratorium (US demands 20 years, Iran offers five), missile program limits, sanctions relief, and regional security guarantees. Diplomats are arranging a second round, potentially within days in Islamabad or Geneva, as President Trump signals willingness to resume amid domestic pressure to de-escalate. These unresolved core demands keep permanent deal prospects dim, with escalation risks tied to the impending ceasefire expiration.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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