Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$34,684 交易量
$34,684 交易量
2026-11-03
瑪麗·格魯森坎普·佩雷茲（民主黨）
89%
約翰·布勞恩（共和黨）
11%
$34,684 交易量
$34,684 交易量
2026-11-03
瑪麗·格魯森坎普·佩雷茲（民主黨）
$23,621 交易量
89%
約翰·布勞恩（共和黨）
$11,063 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$34,684結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,684結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. She advanced from the August top-two primary ahead of Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, who received a Trump endorsement. The R+2 district favored Trump in 2024, yet Perez has demonstrated resilience as a moderate incumbent through consistent fundraising leads and crossover appeal in a swing area. Recent polling averages showed a tight race, but trader consensus reflects her incumbency edge, higher cash reserves, and the broader national environment favoring Democrats in House contests. Braun’s campaign emphasizes state legislative experience and party-line priorities, yet structural factors and primary performance have kept his implied probability lower. The race remains one of the cycle’s more competitive contests, with limited late developments shifting the balance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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