Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro features high rejection rates near 55 percent for both, alongside a statistically tied race in recent polls that has narrowed from earlier Lula leads. This polarization, combined with compulsory voting for ages 18-70 and historical first-round turnout near 79 percent, leaves traders uncertain whether strong partisan mobilization will lift participation into the upper bins or whether disillusionment and potential blank or null votes will hold it lower. Recent institutional tensions at the Supreme Court, ongoing debates, and economic pressures add volatility to last-minute engagement, while undecided voters and shifting support among smaller candidates keep exact turnout levels difficult to pin down ahead of election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于78-80% 46%
低于76% 28%
76-78% 16%
82%及以上 16%
低于76%
28%
76-78%
16%
78-80%
46%
80-82%
11%
82%及以上
16%
78-80% 46%
低于76% 28%
76-78% 16%
82%及以上 16%
低于76%
28%
76-78%
16%
78-80%
46%
80-82%
11%
82%及以上
16%
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 24, 2026, 3:26 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro features high rejection rates near 55 percent for both, alongside a statistically tied race in recent polls that has narrowed from earlier Lula leads. This polarization, combined with compulsory voting for ages 18-70 and historical first-round turnout near 79 percent, leaves traders uncertain whether strong partisan mobilization will lift participation into the upper bins or whether disillusionment and potential blank or null votes will hold it lower. Recent institutional tensions at the Supreme Court, ongoing debates, and economic pressures add volatility to last-minute engagement, while undecided voters and shifting support among smaller candidates keep exact turnout levels difficult to pin down ahead of election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题