Canada’s population trajectory for 2026 reflects the effects of the federal government’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, released in November 2025. Permanent resident targets stabilized at 380,000 annually, while new temporary resident arrivals fell sharply to 385,000—down from 673,650 in 2025—with steep cuts to international student permits (nearly 50% lower) and temporary foreign worker entries (37% lower). Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates show the first recorded annual population decline, dropping 0.2% (roughly 103,500 people) from October 2025 to January 2026, driven by a net outflow of 171,000 non-permanent residents in that quarter alone as prior permit holders departed amid tighter rules. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat overall growth for the year, with net outflows of temporary residents offsetting permanent inflows and minimal natural increase from births minus deaths. These policy adjustments, aimed at reducing the temporary resident share toward 5% of the population, have sustained downward pressure on quarterly figures through early 2026, shaping trader views on a net yearly decline.