Canada's population outlook for 2026 remains closely balanced around even odds, with trader consensus reflecting the effects of the federal 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan. This policy sharply cuts new temporary resident targets—including students and workers—by over 500,000 from prior peaks while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually, aiming to bring the temporary share below 5 percent of total population by year-end. Statistics Canada data show the first annual national decline on record in 2025, driven by net outflows of non-permanent residents that offset modest natural increase and permanent inflows. Continued NPR reductions could sustain flat or negative growth through mid-2026, yet any easing of caps, faster permanent transitions, or higher retention rates could restore modest positive change before year-end resolution.