**Canada's population is projected to remain flat or decline modestly in 2026** due to federal immigration policy changes that sharply reduced temporary resident inflows while stabilizing permanent resident admissions. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, released in November 2025, set permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually and cut new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 for 2026 (a reduction of over 40% from prior levels), aiming to bring the non-permanent resident share below 5% of the total population. Statistics Canada data show the first annual population decline on record occurred in 2025, with the population falling 0.2% (over 100,000 people) to 41,472,081 as of January 1, 2026, driven by net outflows of non-permanent residents exceeding permanent inflows and natural increase. Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicate continued flat growth or slight contraction in 2026 as these outflows persist, before modest recovery in 2027. Trader consensus favoring "Down" reflects the ongoing effects of these caps—introduced to ease pressures on housing, services, and labor markets—combined with low fertility rates and limited natural population growth. No major policy reversals have occurred by mid-2026 to alter this trajectory.