Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Houston high of 78-79°F at 28% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing 78°F amid a post-frontal warming trend following a weak cool front earlier this week. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering around this range, reflecting stabilized upper-level ridging over Texas that limits convective interference and boosts diurnal heating. Lower bids like 72-73°F (20%) account for potential Gulf moisture influx increasing cloud cover and suppressing peaks, while 80-81°F (18.5%) hedges on sunnier skies or lighter winds enhancing solar insolation. Historical late-March norms near 76°F and minimal model divergence as March 28 nears underpin the narrow spread among top outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 28?
78-79°F 28%
72-73°F 20%
74-75°F 20%
76-77°F 20%
67°F or below
17%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 28%
72-73°F 20%
74-75°F 20%
76-77°F 20%
67°F or below
17%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Houston high of 78-79°F at 28% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing 78°F amid a post-frontal warming trend following a weak cool front earlier this week. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering around this range, reflecting stabilized upper-level ridging over Texas that limits convective interference and boosts diurnal heating. Lower bids like 72-73°F (20%) account for potential Gulf moisture influx increasing cloud cover and suppressing peaks, while 80-81°F (18.5%) hedges on sunnier skies or lighter winds enhancing solar insolation. Historical late-March norms near 76°F and minimal model divergence as March 28 nears underpin the narrow spread among top outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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