Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and regional models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong insolation on September 23 under persistent high pressure, supporting afternoon highs of 31–33 °C with limited model spread. These conditions align with late-September climatology for the region, where daily maxima typically range 24–26 °C but can exceed 30 °C during settled anticyclonic periods. The market’s heavy weighting toward 34 °C (60.5 % implied probability) versus 33 °C (29.5 %) reflects trader interpretation of the upper end of ensemble guidance and minor warming biases in some runs, while lower probabilities for 35 °C or below 32 °C capture residual uncertainty from any late-day cloud development or measurement-site microclimate effects. Updated model outputs expected overnight will likely refine the exact peak.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月23日马德里气温最高？
9月23日马德里气温最高？
34°C 61%
33°C 29%
35°C 10%
32°C 1.9%
最新
$11,654 交易量
最新
$11,654 交易量
2026-09-23
28°C或以下
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
29%
34°C
61%
35°C
10%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C或更高
<1%
34°C 61%
33°C 29%
35°C 10%
32°C 1.9%
最新
$11,654 交易量
最新
$11,654 交易量
2026-09-23
28°C或以下
$1,001 交易量
<1%
29°C
$115 交易量
<1%
30°C
$100 交易量
<1%
31°C
$1,054 交易量
1%
32°C
$988 交易量
2%
33°C
$2,513 交易量
29%
34°C
$2,981 交易量
61%
35°C
$1,678 交易量
10%
36°C
$768 交易量
<1%
37°C
$100 交易量
<1%
38°C或更高
$356 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and regional models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong insolation on September 23 under persistent high pressure, supporting afternoon highs of 31–33 °C with limited model spread. These conditions align with late-September climatology for the region, where daily maxima typically range 24–26 °C but can exceed 30 °C during settled anticyclonic periods. The market’s heavy weighting toward 34 °C (60.5 % implied probability) versus 33 °C (29.5 %) reflects trader interpretation of the upper end of ensemble guidance and minor warming biases in some runs, while lower probabilities for 35 °C or below 32 °C capture residual uncertainty from any late-day cloud development or measurement-site microclimate effects. Updated model outputs expected overnight will likely refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$11,654结束日期
2026-09-23市场开放时间
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and regional models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong insolation on September 23 under persistent high pressure, supporting afternoon highs of 31–33 °C with limited model spread. These conditions align with late-September climatology for the region, where daily maxima typically range 24–26 °C but can exceed 30 °C during settled anticyclonic periods. The market’s heavy weighting toward 34 °C (60.5 % implied probability) versus 33 °C (29.5 %) reflects trader interpretation of the upper end of ensemble guidance and minor warming biases in some runs, while lower probabilities for 35 °C or below 32 °C capture residual uncertainty from any late-day cloud development or measurement-site microclimate effects. Updated model outputs expected overnight will likely refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,654结束日期
2026-09-23市场开放时间
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and regional models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong insolation on September 23 under persistent high pressure, supporting afternoon highs of 31–33 °C with limited model spread. These conditions align with late-September climatology for the region, where daily maxima typically range 24–26 °C but can exceed 30 °C during settled anticyclonic periods. The market’s heavy weighting toward 34 °C (60.5 % implied probability) versus 33 °C (29.5 %) reflects trader interpretation of the upper end of ensemble guidance and minor warming biases in some runs, while lower probabilities for 35 °C or below 32 °C capture residual uncertainty from any late-day cloud development or measurement-site microclimate effects. Updated model outputs expected overnight will likely refine the exact peak.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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