Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on September 5, limiting solar heating and keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum in the mid-20s Celsius. Northeast flow associated with a nearby front advects cooler, moist maritime air, while widespread overcast conditions reduce insolation compared with typical early-September climatology near 29 °C. Ensemble model spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustering between 24–26 °C; brief clearing or heavier rain timing could shift the peak by 1 °C either way. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will provide the key data releases before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月5日东京气温最高？
9月5日东京气温最高？
25°C 35%
26°C 34%
24°C 16%
27°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
21℃或以下
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
16%
25°C
35%
26°C
34%
27°C
12%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
4%
31°C或更高
1%
25°C 35%
26°C 34%
24°C 16%
27°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
21℃或以下
$0 交易量
4%
22°C
$43 交易量
2%
23°C
$14 交易量
5%
24°C
$10 交易量
16%
25°C
$16 交易量
35%
26°C
$11 交易量
34%
27°C
$2 交易量
12%
28°C
$0 交易量
3%
29°C
$0 交易量
5%
30°C
$0 交易量
4%
31°C或更高
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on September 5, limiting solar heating and keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum in the mid-20s Celsius. Northeast flow associated with a nearby front advects cooler, moist maritime air, while widespread overcast conditions reduce insolation compared with typical early-September climatology near 29 °C. Ensemble model spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustering between 24–26 °C; brief clearing or heavier rain timing could shift the peak by 1 °C either way. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will provide the key data releases before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$96结束日期
2026-09-05市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on September 5, limiting solar heating and keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum in the mid-20s Celsius. Northeast flow associated with a nearby front advects cooler, moist maritime air, while widespread overcast conditions reduce insolation compared with typical early-September climatology near 29 °C. Ensemble model spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustering between 24–26 °C; brief clearing or heavier rain timing could shift the peak by 1 °C either way. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will provide the key data releases before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$96结束日期
2026-09-05市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers on September 5, limiting solar heating and keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum in the mid-20s Celsius. Northeast flow associated with a nearby front advects cooler, moist maritime air, while widespread overcast conditions reduce insolation compared with typical early-September climatology near 29 °C. Ensemble model spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustering between 24–26 °C; brief clearing or heavier rain timing could shift the peak by 1 °C either way. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes. Updated JMA briefings and next model cycles will provide the key data releases before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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