**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila ahead of September 3.** Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila lists a maximum of 30°C with 90% rain probability, while international models (GFS, ECMWF analogs) cluster around 29–30°C amid strong southwesterly flow, high humidity, and frequent showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation compared to clearer September days, keeping highs near or slightly below the long-term average of ~31°C. The market’s tight split between 30°C (~28.5%) and 31°C (~30%) reflects genuine short-term uncertainty in model details—such as the timing and intensity of convective bursts versus any brief breaks in cloud cover—rather than major forecast divergence. Nearby tropical depression Pilandok is steering away with minimal direct influence, but the broader monsoon pattern continues to suppress temperatures. Traders are weighting official agency outputs and recent model runs heavily, with lower-probability outcomes (32°C or 29°C) representing tail risks from forecast adjustments before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月3日马尼拉的最高温度？
9月3日马尼拉的最高温度？
31°C 30%
30°C 29%
32°C 18%
29°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
10%
29°C
16%
30°C
29%
31°C
30%
32°C
18%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C或更高
<1%
31°C 30%
30°C 29%
32°C 18%
29°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
25°C或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
26°C
$0 交易量
1%
27°C
$7 交易量
3%
28°C
$5 交易量
10%
29°C
$41 交易量
16%
30°C
$75 交易量
29%
31°C
$0 交易量
30%
32°C
$30 交易量
18%
33°C
$30 交易量
11%
34°C
$175 交易量
2%
35°C或更高
$111 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila ahead of September 3.** Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila lists a maximum of 30°C with 90% rain probability, while international models (GFS, ECMWF analogs) cluster around 29–30°C amid strong southwesterly flow, high humidity, and frequent showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation compared to clearer September days, keeping highs near or slightly below the long-term average of ~31°C.
The market’s tight split between 30°C (~28.5%) and 31°C (~30%) reflects genuine short-term uncertainty in model details—such as the timing and intensity of convective bursts versus any brief breaks in cloud cover—rather than major forecast divergence. Nearby tropical depression Pilandok is steering away with minimal direct influence, but the broader monsoon pattern continues to suppress temperatures. Traders are weighting official agency outputs and recent model runs heavily, with lower-probability outcomes (32°C or 29°C) representing tail risks from forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$475结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila ahead of September 3.** Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila lists a maximum of 30°C with 90% rain probability, while international models (GFS, ECMWF analogs) cluster around 29–30°C amid strong southwesterly flow, high humidity, and frequent showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation compared to clearer September days, keeping highs near or slightly below the long-term average of ~31°C.
The market’s tight split between 30°C (~28.5%) and 31°C (~30%) reflects genuine short-term uncertainty in model details—such as the timing and intensity of convective bursts versus any brief breaks in cloud cover—rather than major forecast divergence. Nearby tropical depression Pilandok is steering away with minimal direct influence, but the broader monsoon pattern continues to suppress temperatures. Traders are weighting official agency outputs and recent model runs heavily, with lower-probability outcomes (32°C or 29°C) representing tail risks from forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$475结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila ahead of September 3.** Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila lists a maximum of 30°C with 90% rain probability, while international models (GFS, ECMWF analogs) cluster around 29–30°C amid strong southwesterly flow, high humidity, and frequent showers or thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation compared to clearer September days, keeping highs near or slightly below the long-term average of ~31°C. The market’s tight split between 30°C (~28.5%) and 31°C (~30%) reflects genuine short-term uncertainty in model details—such as the timing and intensity of convective bursts versus any brief breaks in cloud cover—rather than major forecast divergence. Nearby tropical depression Pilandok is steering away with minimal direct influence, but the broader monsoon pattern continues to suppress temperatures. Traders are weighting official agency outputs and recent model runs heavily, with lower-probability outcomes (32°C or 29°C) representing tail risks from forecast adjustments before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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