Recent model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicates a frontal boundary or remnant moisture will drive widespread cloud cover, northerly winds, and heavy rain across Tokyo on September 4, limiting daytime heating and capping the maximum temperature near 26–27°C. This represents a notable departure from early-September climatological highs near 29–30°C, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation suppress peak values. Leading market probabilities for 26°C and 27°C reflect tight model spread on the precise timing and intensity of showers, with minor differences hinging on exact wind shifts and boundary placement; updated runs from NHC or JMA guidance could refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日东京气温最高？
9月4日东京气温最高？
27°C 33%
26°C 28%
25°C 13%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
21°C或以下
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
13%
26°C
28%
27°C
33%
28°C
10%
29°C
3%
30°C
3%
31°C或以上
4%
27°C 33%
26°C 28%
25°C 13%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
21°C或以下
$0 交易量
4%
22°C
$0 交易量
2%
23°C
$101 交易量
2%
24°C
$29 交易量
5%
25°C
$86 交易量
13%
26°C
$50 交易量
28%
27°C
$17 交易量
33%
28°C
$180 交易量
10%
29°C
$30 交易量
3%
30°C
$13 交易量
3%
31°C或以上
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicates a frontal boundary or remnant moisture will drive widespread cloud cover, northerly winds, and heavy rain across Tokyo on September 4, limiting daytime heating and capping the maximum temperature near 26–27°C. This represents a notable departure from early-September climatological highs near 29–30°C, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation suppress peak values. Leading market probabilities for 26°C and 27°C reflect tight model spread on the precise timing and intensity of showers, with minor differences hinging on exact wind shifts and boundary placement; updated runs from NHC or JMA guidance could refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$506结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicates a frontal boundary or remnant moisture will drive widespread cloud cover, northerly winds, and heavy rain across Tokyo on September 4, limiting daytime heating and capping the maximum temperature near 26–27°C. This represents a notable departure from early-September climatological highs near 29–30°C, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation suppress peak values. Leading market probabilities for 26°C and 27°C reflect tight model spread on the precise timing and intensity of showers, with minor differences hinging on exact wind shifts and boundary placement; updated runs from NHC or JMA guidance could refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$506结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicates a frontal boundary or remnant moisture will drive widespread cloud cover, northerly winds, and heavy rain across Tokyo on September 4, limiting daytime heating and capping the maximum temperature near 26–27°C. This represents a notable departure from early-September climatological highs near 29–30°C, as reduced insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation suppress peak values. Leading market probabilities for 26°C and 27°C reflect tight model spread on the precise timing and intensity of showers, with minor differences hinging on exact wind shifts and boundary placement; updated runs from NHC or JMA guidance could refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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