Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by nearby tropical systems, is driving extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila, limiting daytime solar insolation and suppressing maximum temperatures below the September climatological average of ~31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy conditions with scattered to widespread showers on September 4, producing forecast highs of 29–30°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–30°C, with modest dispersion reflecting residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日马尼拉的最高温度？
9月4日马尼拉的最高温度？
31°C 26%
30°C 24%
29°C 17%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
23°C或以下
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
8%
28°C
10%
29°C
17%
30°C
24%
31°C
24%
32°C
7%
33°C或以上
7%
31°C 26%
30°C 24%
29°C 17%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
23°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
24°C
$0 交易量
2%
25°C
$0 交易量
2%
26°C
$120 交易量
6%
27°C
$0 交易量
8%
28°C
$5 交易量
10%
29°C
$0 交易量
17%
30°C
$0 交易量
24%
31°C
$37 交易量
24%
32°C
$0 交易量
7%
33°C或以上
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by nearby tropical systems, is driving extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila, limiting daytime solar insolation and suppressing maximum temperatures below the September climatological average of ~31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy conditions with scattered to widespread showers on September 4, producing forecast highs of 29–30°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–30°C, with modest dispersion reflecting residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$142结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by nearby tropical systems, is driving extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila, limiting daytime solar insolation and suppressing maximum temperatures below the September climatological average of ~31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy conditions with scattered to widespread showers on September 4, producing forecast highs of 29–30°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–30°C, with modest dispersion reflecting residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$142结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by nearby tropical systems, is driving extensive cloud cover and frequent rainfall over Manila, limiting daytime solar insolation and suppressing maximum temperatures below the September climatological average of ~31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy conditions with scattered to widespread showers on September 4, producing forecast highs of 29–30°C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 29–30°C, with modest dispersion reflecting residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and any brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 31°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key data for refining these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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