**Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and local monitoring point to a high of 32–33°C on September 4 under increasing cloud cover, with the Qinghai-Tibet high-pressure system (“Qinggao”) still exerting influence but yielding to more moisture.** This follows a 35.6°C reading on September 1 and projected highs of 34°C (Sept 2–3), creating a modest cooling trend amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers possible in western mountain areas. Global models show a spread—some maintaining 33–34°C under clearer conditions while others trend toward 27–30°C with greater cloud thickness or precipitation—producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–35°C. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by local stations, where even modest differences in afternoon insolation or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus local guidance most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to upside model runs that keep temperatures elevated into the mid-30s.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日成都气温最高？
9月4日成都气温最高？
34°C 33%
33°C 25%
35°C 22%
32°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
10%
33°C
25%
34°C
33%
35°C
22%
36℃
6%
37°C或更高
3%
34°C 33%
33°C 25%
35°C 22%
32°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
28°C
$0 交易量
4%
29°C
$0 交易量
4%
30°C
$24 交易量
2%
31°C
$30 交易量
3%
32°C
$2 交易量
10%
33°C
$0 交易量
25%
34°C
$0 交易量
33%
35°C
$0 交易量
22%
36℃
$44 交易量
6%
37°C或更高
$100 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and local monitoring point to a high of 32–33°C on September 4 under increasing cloud cover, with the Qinghai-Tibet high-pressure system (“Qinggao”) still exerting influence but yielding to more moisture.**
This follows a 35.6°C reading on September 1 and projected highs of 34°C (Sept 2–3), creating a modest cooling trend amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers possible in western mountain areas. Global models show a spread—some maintaining 33–34°C under clearer conditions while others trend toward 27–30°C with greater cloud thickness or precipitation—producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–35°C.
Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by local stations, where even modest differences in afternoon insolation or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus local guidance most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to upside model runs that keep temperatures elevated into the mid-30s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$200结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and local monitoring point to a high of 32–33°C on September 4 under increasing cloud cover, with the Qinghai-Tibet high-pressure system (“Qinggao”) still exerting influence but yielding to more moisture.**
This follows a 35.6°C reading on September 1 and projected highs of 34°C (Sept 2–3), creating a modest cooling trend amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers possible in western mountain areas. Global models show a spread—some maintaining 33–34°C under clearer conditions while others trend toward 27–30°C with greater cloud thickness or precipitation—producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–35°C.
Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by local stations, where even modest differences in afternoon insolation or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus local guidance most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to upside model runs that keep temperatures elevated into the mid-30s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$200结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau and local monitoring point to a high of 32–33°C on September 4 under increasing cloud cover, with the Qinghai-Tibet high-pressure system (“Qinggao”) still exerting influence but yielding to more moisture.** This follows a 35.6°C reading on September 1 and projected highs of 34°C (Sept 2–3), creating a modest cooling trend amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers possible in western mountain areas. Global models show a spread—some maintaining 33–34°C under clearer conditions while others trend toward 27–30°C with greater cloud thickness or precipitation—producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–35°C. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum reported by local stations, where even modest differences in afternoon insolation or boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus local guidance most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to upside model runs that keep temperatures elevated into the mid-30s.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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