Recent forecasts from multiple numerical weather models indicate a likely daily maximum of 31–34°C in Chengdu on September 2 under persistent high-pressure subsidence and clear skies, keeping the market tightly clustered around 33–35°C. Light northeasterly flow, low humidity, and minimal cloud cover favor strong daytime heating, while the seasonal decline in solar angle and gradual monsoon retreat introduce slight cooling relative to late-August peaks. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, with official guidance from Chinese meteorological services converging near 32°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical early-September baselines near 28°C, positioning odds to capture the narrow window where small forecast revisions could shift resolution between the leading outcomes.