**Forecast models currently point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 16 near 15–18°C, reflecting a modest cooldown after recent hot days.** Highs reached 33–35°C on September 14–15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, but northeasterly winds are expected to strengthen on the 16th, advecting cooler continental air while skies remain mostly clear. This setup favors radiative cooling overnight, supporting lows in the mid-teens Celsius consistent with historical September averages of about 15.4°C. The tightly matched market-implied odds around 16°C or below versus much warmer thresholds capture lingering model spread in exact minimum values, driven by small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing across ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs. Clear, dry conditions increase the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind could keep temperatures several degrees milder. The next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日马德里最低气温？
9月16日马德里最低气温？
26°C或更高 87%
16°C或以下 77%
20°C 37%
21°C 37%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
16°C或以下
77%
17°C
24%
18°C
28%
19°C
22%
20°C
37%
21°C
37%
22°C
37%
23°C
37%
24°C
37%
25°C
37%
26°C或更高
87%
26°C或更高 87%
16°C或以下 77%
20°C 37%
21°C 37%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
16°C或以下
$0 交易量
77%
17°C
$0 交易量
24%
18°C
$0 交易量
28%
19°C
$0 交易量
22%
20°C
$0 交易量
37%
21°C
$0 交易量
37%
22°C
$0 交易量
37%
23°C
$0 交易量
37%
24°C
$0 交易量
37%
25°C
$0 交易量
37%
26°C或更高
$0 交易量
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 16 near 15–18°C, reflecting a modest cooldown after recent hot days.** Highs reached 33–35°C on September 14–15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, but northeasterly winds are expected to strengthen on the 16th, advecting cooler continental air while skies remain mostly clear. This setup favors radiative cooling overnight, supporting lows in the mid-teens Celsius consistent with historical September averages of about 15.4°C.
The tightly matched market-implied odds around 16°C or below versus much warmer thresholds capture lingering model spread in exact minimum values, driven by small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing across ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs. Clear, dry conditions increase the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind could keep temperatures several degrees milder. The next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 16 near 15–18°C, reflecting a modest cooldown after recent hot days.** Highs reached 33–35°C on September 14–15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, but northeasterly winds are expected to strengthen on the 16th, advecting cooler continental air while skies remain mostly clear. This setup favors radiative cooling overnight, supporting lows in the mid-teens Celsius consistent with historical September averages of about 15.4°C.
The tightly matched market-implied odds around 16°C or below versus much warmer thresholds capture lingering model spread in exact minimum values, driven by small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing across ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs. Clear, dry conditions increase the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind could keep temperatures several degrees milder. The next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Forecast models currently point to a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 16 near 15–18°C, reflecting a modest cooldown after recent hot days.** Highs reached 33–35°C on September 14–15 under clear skies and light southerly flow, but northeasterly winds are expected to strengthen on the 16th, advecting cooler continental air while skies remain mostly clear. This setup favors radiative cooling overnight, supporting lows in the mid-teens Celsius consistent with historical September averages of about 15.4°C. The tightly matched market-implied odds around 16°C or below versus much warmer thresholds capture lingering model spread in exact minimum values, driven by small differences in cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing across ECMWF, GFS, and regional runs. Clear, dry conditions increase the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind could keep temperatures several degrees milder. The next 24–48 hours of updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings will likely narrow this range ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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