Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional guidance, indicate a high of 27–29°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air behind the intense heat of September 15. Increased afternoon cloud cover is expected to limit insolation and peak temperatures relative to the prior day's clear-sky maximum near 35°C. Historical September 16 averages near 26.4°C provide context, while current consensus across sources supports the market's heaviest positioning on 28°C and 29°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and low precipitation risk as stabilizing factors ahead of final observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日马德里气温最高？
9月16日马德里气温最高？
28°C 43%
29°C 30%
27°C 19%
30°C 7%
最新
$18,976 交易量
最新
$18,976 交易量
2026-09-16
26°C或以下
5%
27°C
19%
28°C
43%
29°C
30%
30°C
7%
31°C
3%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C或更高
<1%
28°C 43%
29°C 30%
27°C 19%
30°C 7%
最新
$18,976 交易量
最新
$18,976 交易量
2026-09-16
26°C或以下
$618 交易量
5%
27°C
$1,392 交易量
19%
28°C
$2,754 交易量
43%
29°C
$4,398 交易量
30%
30°C
$4,263 交易量
7%
31°C
$2,386 交易量
3%
32°C
$1,328 交易量
2%
33°C
$1,074 交易量
1%
34°C
$279 交易量
<1%
35°C
$373 交易量
<1%
36°C或更高
$112 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional guidance, indicate a high of 27–29°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air behind the intense heat of September 15. Increased afternoon cloud cover is expected to limit insolation and peak temperatures relative to the prior day's clear-sky maximum near 35°C. Historical September 16 averages near 26.4°C provide context, while current consensus across sources supports the market's heaviest positioning on 28°C and 29°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and low precipitation risk as stabilizing factors ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$18,976结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional guidance, indicate a high of 27–29°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air behind the intense heat of September 15. Increased afternoon cloud cover is expected to limit insolation and peak temperatures relative to the prior day's clear-sky maximum near 35°C. Historical September 16 averages near 26.4°C provide context, while current consensus across sources supports the market's heaviest positioning on 28°C and 29°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and low precipitation risk as stabilizing factors ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$18,976结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional guidance, indicate a high of 27–29°C in Madrid on September 16, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow advecting cooler, drier air behind the intense heat of September 15. Increased afternoon cloud cover is expected to limit insolation and peak temperatures relative to the prior day's clear-sky maximum near 35°C. Historical September 16 averages near 26.4°C provide context, while current consensus across sources supports the market's heaviest positioning on 28°C and 29°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range of model guidance and low precipitation risk as stabilizing factors ahead of final observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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