Recent weather models from PAGASA and international sources indicate Manila will experience typical late-September monsoon conditions on the 23rd, with high humidity near 90% and scattered thunderstorms limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup typically keeps overnight lows in the 24–26°C range, as persistent cloud cover and light winds prevent sharp temperature drops despite the tropical climate's baseline. Trader sentiment remains split, with near-even implied probabilities between extremes above 31°C and below 21°C, reflecting model uncertainty in exact minimum timing amid variable rain bands and the inherent spread in local station readings versus broader forecasts. Upcoming overnight updates from monitoring agencies will likely refine these narrow margins before resolution.