**Forecast models indicate a daily minimum temperature in Munich on September 5, 2026, most likely in the 14–16°C range, with current trader-implied probabilities clustered tightly around these outcomes (14°C at 25.5%, 15°C and 16°C at 26.0% each).** A frontal system with showers and westerly flow is expected to moderate overnight temperatures after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office points to a nighttime low near 14°C, while other model outputs (including DWD-MOS and ensemble runs) show values from roughly 13–17°C depending on the exact timing of cloud cover, rainfall, and wind speeds. These differences arise because increased moisture and reduced radiative cooling under clouds can raise the minimum by 1–3°C compared to clearer scenarios, while lighter winds allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. The market’s close probabilities reflect this genuine short-term uncertainty in high-resolution forecasts, typical for a 48-hour horizon where small shifts in frontal timing or local effects can alter the observed low. Historical September 5 averages (around 11.6°C) provide context but are less relevant given the current synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next day or two will likely narrow the distribution before resolution.