Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月28日上海最低气温？
4月28日上海最低气温？
13°C 100.0%
7°C或以下 <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$17,042 交易量
$17,042 交易量
2026-04-28
7°C或以下
否
8°C
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
是
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C或更高
否
13°C 100.0%
7°C或以下 <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$17,042 交易量
$17,042 交易量
2026-04-28
7°C或以下
$489 交易量
否
8°C
$712 交易量
否
9°C
$676 交易量
否
10°C
$1,137 交易量
否
11°C
$1,607 交易量
否
12°C
$2,972 交易量
否
13°C
$1,637 交易量
是
14°C
$916 交易量
否
15°C
$2,082 交易量
否
16°C
$1,375 交易量
否
17°C或更高
$3,440 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$17,042结束日期
2026-04-28市场开放时间
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$17,042结束日期
2026-04-28市场开放时间
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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