**Persistent southwesterly flow and an evolving low-pressure system are the main drivers shaping overnight minimum temperatures in Taipei for August 31.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects nighttime lows of 26–30 °C under cloudy to overcast skies, while several global models show potential for 25 °C or slightly lower if persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limit radiational cooling. These conditions stem from moisture-laden southwesterly winds interacting with the low-pressure disturbance, which has already triggered heavy rain advisories across parts of Taiwan and is expected to sustain elevated humidity and reduced nighttime temperature drops. Late-August climatology places typical minima near 25–26 °C, so the market’s tight spread between the 26 °C outcome (48.0 % implied probability) and 22 °C-or-below (45.5 %) reflects trader uncertainty over how much additional cooling the low-pressure system will deliver versus a return to clearer, warmer nocturnal conditions. Model consensus remains modest, with some runs indicating brief rain-cooled air masses that could nudge readings a degree or two lower, while others keep the floor near 26 °C. Resolution will hinge on the final 24–48 hours of observational data and any revisions from the CWA or international forecast centers before the overnight period ends.