Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover positioning Madrid for a daytime peak near 30°C on August 29. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant moisture or frontal influences, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (62.5% implied probability) over 30°C (30%). Trader sentiment reflects the narrow spread between ensemble outputs and official station criteria, with low odds on 32°C+ underscoring limited upside potential from current atmospheric stability. Updated runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this narrow range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月29日马德里气温最高？
8月29日马德里气温最高？
31°C 63%
30°C 30%
32°C 7%
29°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-29
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
30%
31°C
63%
32°C
7%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 63%
30°C 30%
32°C 7%
29°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-29
25°C or below
$438 交易量
<1%
26°C
$321 交易量
<1%
27°C
$261 交易量
<1%
28°C
$215 交易量
<1%
29°C
$718 交易量
3%
30°C
$1,913 交易量
30%
31°C
$2,312 交易量
63%
32°C
$575 交易量
7%
33°C
$478 交易量
2%
34°C
$204 交易量
<1%
35°C or higher
$207 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover positioning Madrid for a daytime peak near 30°C on August 29. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant moisture or frontal influences, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (62.5% implied probability) over 30°C (30%). Trader sentiment reflects the narrow spread between ensemble outputs and official station criteria, with low odds on 32°C+ underscoring limited upside potential from current atmospheric stability. Updated runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$7,643结束日期
2026-08-29市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover positioning Madrid for a daytime peak near 30°C on August 29. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant moisture or frontal influences, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (62.5% implied probability) over 30°C (30%). Trader sentiment reflects the narrow spread between ensemble outputs and official station criteria, with low odds on 32°C+ underscoring limited upside potential from current atmospheric stability. Updated runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,643结束日期
2026-08-29市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources including GFS and regional forecasts points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover positioning Madrid for a daytime peak near 30°C on August 29. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant moisture or frontal influences, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (62.5% implied probability) over 30°C (30%). Trader sentiment reflects the narrow spread between ensemble outputs and official station criteria, with low odds on 32°C+ underscoring limited upside potential from current atmospheric stability. Updated runs ahead of resolution will likely refine this narrow range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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