Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate clear, sunny skies over Beijing on August 30 following light rain on the 28th, with high pressure promoting strong daytime heating and light northwesterly winds. This setup favors afternoon maxima near 32–33°C, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach about 29°C but clear conditions often push temperatures 3–4°C higher. Model consensus across sources clusters tightly around these values, though minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or exact wind speeds could shift the peak by 1°C. Trader-implied odds, with 33°C as the plurality outcome, align with this evidence-based outlook and the low probability assigned to extremes beyond 34°C or below 31°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine these projections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月30日北京气温最高?
33°C 41%
32°C 27%
34°C 16%
31°C 11%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
27%
33°C
41%
34°C
16%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
3%
33°C 41%
32°C 27%
34°C 16%
31°C 11%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
11%
32°C
27%
33°C
41%
34°C
16%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate clear, sunny skies over Beijing on August 30 following light rain on the 28th, with high pressure promoting strong daytime heating and light northwesterly winds. This setup favors afternoon maxima near 32–33°C, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach about 29°C but clear conditions often push temperatures 3–4°C higher. Model consensus across sources clusters tightly around these values, though minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or exact wind speeds could shift the peak by 1°C. Trader-implied odds, with 33°C as the plurality outcome, align with this evidence-based outlook and the low probability assigned to extremes beyond 34°C or below 31°C given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine these projections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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