Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising and name recognition advantages. New Mexico voters backed the Democratic presidential nominee by 6-10 points in 2024, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. On the Republican side, the leading primary candidate was disqualified from the ballot, leaving only write-in nominee Larry Marker, a former oil and gas operator, as the general-election opponent. This structural weakness, combined with the absence of other major-party challengers after minor candidates were removed, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as significant scandals, health events, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,761 交易量
$25,761 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
4%
$25,761 交易量
$25,761 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$16,559 交易量
96%
共和党
$9,202 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising and name recognition advantages. New Mexico voters backed the Democratic presidential nominee by 6-10 points in 2024, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. On the Republican side, the leading primary candidate was disqualified from the ballot, leaving only write-in nominee Larry Marker, a former oil and gas operator, as the general-election opponent. This structural weakness, combined with the absence of other major-party challengers after minor candidates were removed, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as significant scandals, health events, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$25,761结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising and name recognition advantages. New Mexico voters backed the Democratic presidential nominee by 6-10 points in 2024, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. On the Republican side, the leading primary candidate was disqualified from the ballot, leaving only write-in nominee Larry Marker, a former oil and gas operator, as the general-election opponent. This structural weakness, combined with the absence of other major-party challengers after minor candidates were removed, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as significant scandals, health events, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,761结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising and name recognition advantages. New Mexico voters backed the Democratic presidential nominee by 6-10 points in 2024, and forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. On the Republican side, the leading primary candidate was disqualified from the ballot, leaving only write-in nominee Larry Marker, a former oil and gas operator, as the general-election opponent. This structural weakness, combined with the absence of other major-party challengers after minor candidates were removed, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as significant scandals, health events, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the gap before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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