US banking sector stability underpins the 75.5% market-implied probability of no bank failure by April 30, as traders price in the absence of distress signals reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Recent Q1 earnings from major players like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo surpassed revenue and profit estimates, bolstering confidence amid resilient capital buffers and regulatory scrutiny. Regional lender New York Community Bancorp's early-March share plunge from commercial real estate exposure has stabilized without spillover, with no FDIC-reported failures since July 2023. Heightened deposit insurance and the Federal Reserve's prior interventions continue to mitigate tail risks, though lingering CRE loan stresses warrant monitoring ahead of June stress tests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.US banking sector stability underpins the 75.5% market-implied probability of no bank failure by April 30, as traders price in the absence of distress signals reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Recent Q1 earnings from major players like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo surpassed revenue and profit estimates, bolstering confidence amid resilient capital buffers and regulatory scrutiny. Regional lender New York Community Bancorp's early-March share plunge from commercial real estate exposure has stabilized without spillover, with no FDIC-reported failures since July 2023. Heightened deposit insurance and the Federal Reserve's prior interventions continue to mitigate tail risks, though lingering CRE loan stresses warrant monitoring ahead of June stress tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
交易量
$6,546结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.US banking sector stability underpins the 75.5% market-implied probability of no bank failure by April 30, as traders price in the absence of distress signals reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Recent Q1 earnings from major players like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo surpassed revenue and profit estimates, bolstering confidence amid resilient capital buffers and regulatory scrutiny. Regional lender New York Community Bancorp's early-March share plunge from commercial real estate exposure has stabilized without spillover, with no FDIC-reported failures since July 2023. Heightened deposit insurance and the Federal Reserve's prior interventions continue to mitigate tail risks, though lingering CRE loan stresses warrant monitoring ahead of June stress tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$6,546结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US banking sector stability underpins the 75.5% market-implied probability of no bank failure by April 30, as traders price in the absence of distress signals reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Recent Q1 earnings from major players like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo surpassed revenue and profit estimates, bolstering confidence amid resilient capital buffers and regulatory scrutiny. Regional lender New York Community Bancorp's early-March share plunge from commercial real estate exposure has stabilized without spillover, with no FDIC-reported failures since July 2023. Heightened deposit insurance and the Federal Reserve's prior interventions continue to mitigate tail risks, though lingering CRE loan stresses warrant monitoring ahead of June stress tests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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