**Recent diplomatic posture and de-escalation in the Middle East have kept the probability of a full U.S. Embassy Beirut evacuation low.** A February 2026 order reduced staffing to essential personnel and family members amid Iran-related tensions and military buildup, but by late August the State Department began restoring higher staffing levels across regional posts, including Lebanon, as risks eased. The embassy has remained open for routine citizen and visa services, issued standard security alerts without ordering further departures, and continued public activities such as 9/11 commemorations and cultural repatriations in early September 2026. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon talks (next round shifting to Washington), Lebanese Armed Forces deployment efforts in the south, and embassy statements backing state sovereignty over militia control reflect sustained diplomatic presence rather than withdrawal. Markets price full evacuation by late 2026 dates in the low single digits, consistent with the absence of announcements or confirmed escalations that historically precede complete embassy closures. Scheduled diplomatic and security reviews could still shift conditions if regional developments intensify.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$119,400 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
6%
$119,400 交易量
12月31日
$25,298 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Recent diplomatic posture and de-escalation in the Middle East have kept the probability of a full U.S. Embassy Beirut evacuation low.**
A February 2026 order reduced staffing to essential personnel and family members amid Iran-related tensions and military buildup, but by late August the State Department began restoring higher staffing levels across regional posts, including Lebanon, as risks eased. The embassy has remained open for routine citizen and visa services, issued standard security alerts without ordering further departures, and continued public activities such as 9/11 commemorations and cultural repatriations in early September 2026.
Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon talks (next round shifting to Washington), Lebanese Armed Forces deployment efforts in the south, and embassy statements backing state sovereignty over militia control reflect sustained diplomatic presence rather than withdrawal. Markets price full evacuation by late 2026 dates in the low single digits, consistent with the absence of announcements or confirmed escalations that historically precede complete embassy closures. Scheduled diplomatic and security reviews could still shift conditions if regional developments intensify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$119,400结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Recent diplomatic posture and de-escalation in the Middle East have kept the probability of a full U.S. Embassy Beirut evacuation low.**
A February 2026 order reduced staffing to essential personnel and family members amid Iran-related tensions and military buildup, but by late August the State Department began restoring higher staffing levels across regional posts, including Lebanon, as risks eased. The embassy has remained open for routine citizen and visa services, issued standard security alerts without ordering further departures, and continued public activities such as 9/11 commemorations and cultural repatriations in early September 2026.
Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon talks (next round shifting to Washington), Lebanese Armed Forces deployment efforts in the south, and embassy statements backing state sovereignty over militia control reflect sustained diplomatic presence rather than withdrawal. Markets price full evacuation by late 2026 dates in the low single digits, consistent with the absence of announcements or confirmed escalations that historically precede complete embassy closures. Scheduled diplomatic and security reviews could still shift conditions if regional developments intensify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$119,400结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET**Recent diplomatic posture and de-escalation in the Middle East have kept the probability of a full U.S. Embassy Beirut evacuation low.** A February 2026 order reduced staffing to essential personnel and family members amid Iran-related tensions and military buildup, but by late August the State Department began restoring higher staffing levels across regional posts, including Lebanon, as risks eased. The embassy has remained open for routine citizen and visa services, issued standard security alerts without ordering further departures, and continued public activities such as 9/11 commemorations and cultural repatriations in early September 2026. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon talks (next round shifting to Washington), Lebanese Armed Forces deployment efforts in the south, and embassy statements backing state sovereignty over militia control reflect sustained diplomatic presence rather than withdrawal. Markets price full evacuation by late 2026 dates in the low single digits, consistent with the absence of announcements or confirmed escalations that historically precede complete embassy closures. Scheduled diplomatic and security reviews could still shift conditions if regional developments intensify.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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