Amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8 and set to expire around April 22, Pakistani mediators are facilitating indirect talks to extend the truce and advance negotiations toward a permanent peace deal, following collapsed direct discussions in Islamabad earlier this month. President Trump has expressed optimism that the war is "very close to over," while offering a 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, though Tehran demands guarantees against future Israeli strikes and US naval actions like a threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade. Deep divisions over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxies, and ballistic missiles sustain trader skepticism for near-term resolution, with upcoming diplomatic deadlines in Tehran poised to either de-escalate or trigger renewed hostilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$8,576,420 交易量
2026-04-22
4月22日
17%
4月30日
37%
5月31日
64%
6月30日
71%
$8,576,420 交易量
4月22日
$5,696,888 交易量
17%
4月30日
$1,569,775 交易量
37%
5月31日
$1,042,507 交易量
64%
6月30日
$275,732 交易量
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8 and set to expire around April 22, Pakistani mediators are facilitating indirect talks to extend the truce and advance negotiations toward a permanent peace deal, following collapsed direct discussions in Islamabad earlier this month. President Trump has expressed optimism that the war is "very close to over," while offering a 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, though Tehran demands guarantees against future Israeli strikes and US naval actions like a threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade. Deep divisions over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxies, and ballistic missiles sustain trader skepticism for near-term resolution, with upcoming diplomatic deadlines in Tehran poised to either de-escalate or trigger renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
交易量
$8,576,420结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8 and set to expire around April 22, Pakistani mediators are facilitating indirect talks to extend the truce and advance negotiations toward a permanent peace deal, following collapsed direct discussions in Islamabad earlier this month. President Trump has expressed optimism that the war is "very close to over," while offering a 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, though Tehran demands guarantees against future Israeli strikes and US naval actions like a threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade. Deep divisions over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxies, and ballistic missiles sustain trader skepticism for near-term resolution, with upcoming diplomatic deadlines in Tehran poised to either de-escalate or trigger renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,576,420结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on April 8 and set to expire around April 22, Pakistani mediators are facilitating indirect talks to extend the truce and advance negotiations toward a permanent peace deal, following collapsed direct discussions in Islamabad earlier this month. President Trump has expressed optimism that the war is "very close to over," while offering a 20-year suspension of Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, though Tehran demands guarantees against future Israeli strikes and US naval actions like a threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade. Deep divisions over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxies, and ballistic missiles sustain trader skepticism for near-term resolution, with upcoming diplomatic deadlines in Tehran poised to either de-escalate or trigger renewed hostilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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