Marathon US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad collapsed April 11 over sticking points including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, suspending nuclear enrichment, and missile program limits, leading the US to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 12. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 holds, but Iran threatens Red Sea disruptions if the blockade persists. White House officials voiced optimism April 16 for imminent second-round negotiations, with President Trump signaling potential breakthroughs. Trader consensus prices low near-term odds for a permanent peace deal—requiring explicit language ending hostilities—due to unresolved tensions, but implies rising probabilities by June amid sustained diplomacy and historical patterns of extended conflict resolutions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$8,145,789 交易量
2026-05-31
4月22日
16%
4月30日
39%
5月31日
60%
6月30日
68%
$8,145,789 交易量
4月22日
$5,400,477 交易量
16%
4月30日
$1,512,529 交易量
39%
5月31日
$998,019 交易量
60%
6月30日
$239,774 交易量
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Marathon US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad collapsed April 11 over sticking points including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, suspending nuclear enrichment, and missile program limits, leading the US to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 12. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 holds, but Iran threatens Red Sea disruptions if the blockade persists. White House officials voiced optimism April 16 for imminent second-round negotiations, with President Trump signaling potential breakthroughs. Trader consensus prices low near-term odds for a permanent peace deal—requiring explicit language ending hostilities—due to unresolved tensions, but implies rising probabilities by June amid sustained diplomacy and historical patterns of extended conflict resolutions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
交易量
$8,145,789结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Marathon US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad collapsed April 11 over sticking points including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, suspending nuclear enrichment, and missile program limits, leading the US to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 12. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 holds, but Iran threatens Red Sea disruptions if the blockade persists. White House officials voiced optimism April 16 for imminent second-round negotiations, with President Trump signaling potential breakthroughs. Trader consensus prices low near-term odds for a permanent peace deal—requiring explicit language ending hostilities—due to unresolved tensions, but implies rising probabilities by June amid sustained diplomacy and historical patterns of extended conflict resolutions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,145,789结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Marathon US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad collapsed April 11 over sticking points including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, suspending nuclear enrichment, and missile program limits, leading the US to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 12. A fragile two-week ceasefire from April 8 holds, but Iran threatens Red Sea disruptions if the blockade persists. White House officials voiced optimism April 16 for imminent second-round negotiations, with President Trump signaling potential breakthroughs. Trader consensus prices low near-term odds for a permanent peace deal—requiring explicit language ending hostilities—due to unresolved tensions, but implies rising probabilities by June amid sustained diplomacy and historical patterns of extended conflict resolutions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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