Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent opinion polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first round, positioning them as trader favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the majoritarian system requiring over 50% plus one vote to win outright. A Datafolha survey on April 11 showed them statistically tied at 46-48% in a simulated runoff, reflecting Lula's incumbency advantages amid economic recovery signals alongside Flávio's appeal to conservative voters as Jair Bolsonaro's son, ineligible due to prior ineligibility ruling. Trailing contenders like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll below 10%, with no major shifts in the past week; upcoming party conventions by July and campaign launch August 16 could solidify nominations or introduce volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$271,321 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
88%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
79%
费尔南多·阿达
17%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
5%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
3%
$271,321 交易量
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$15,796 交易量
88%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$112,249 交易量
79%
费尔南多·阿达
$47,521 交易量
17%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$65,781 交易量
5%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$20,563 交易量
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
$9,461 交易量
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent opinion polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first round, positioning them as trader favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the majoritarian system requiring over 50% plus one vote to win outright. A Datafolha survey on April 11 showed them statistically tied at 46-48% in a simulated runoff, reflecting Lula's incumbency advantages amid economic recovery signals alongside Flávio's appeal to conservative voters as Jair Bolsonaro's son, ineligible due to prior ineligibility ruling. Trailing contenders like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll below 10%, with no major shifts in the past week; upcoming party conventions by July and campaign launch August 16 could solidify nominations or introduce volatility.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$271,321结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent opinion polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first round, positioning them as trader favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the majoritarian system requiring over 50% plus one vote to win outright. A Datafolha survey on April 11 showed them statistically tied at 46-48% in a simulated runoff, reflecting Lula's incumbency advantages amid economic recovery signals alongside Flávio's appeal to conservative voters as Jair Bolsonaro's son, ineligible due to prior ineligibility ruling. Trailing contenders like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll below 10%, with no major shifts in the past week; upcoming party conventions by July and campaign launch August 16 could solidify nominations or introduce volatility.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$271,321结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent opinion polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first round, positioning them as trader favorites to advance to the October 25 runoff under the majoritarian system requiring over 50% plus one vote to win outright. A Datafolha survey on April 11 showed them statistically tied at 46-48% in a simulated runoff, reflecting Lula's incumbency advantages amid economic recovery signals alongside Flávio's appeal to conservative voters as Jair Bolsonaro's son, ineligible due to prior ineligibility ruling. Trailing contenders like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema poll below 10%, with no major shifts in the past week; upcoming party conventions by July and campaign launch August 16 could solidify nominations or introduce volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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