Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for a 12°C high in Ankara on April 13, closely trailed by 11°C at 27% and 13°C at 16.5%, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international models, which project maximums of 11–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This positioning stems from a persistent early-April cold snap, with recent days recording highs near 9°C on April 8 and around 8–10°C on April 11 amid northerly cold air advection suppressing temperatures well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, signaling low uncertainty, though minor model shifts could occur with tomorrow's 12Z updates ahead of observed measurements at Esenboğa Airport.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on April 13?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 13?
12°C 42%
11°C 25%
13°C 18%
14°C 6.5%
$13,469 Vol.
$13,469 Vol.
9°C oder darunter
5%
10°C
4%
11°C
25%
12°C
42%
13°C
18%
14°C
7%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
12°C 42%
11°C 25%
13°C 18%
14°C 6.5%
$13,469 Vol.
$13,469 Vol.
9°C oder darunter
5%
10°C
4%
11°C
25%
12°C
42%
13°C
18%
14°C
7%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 9, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 42% implied probability for a 12°C high in Ankara on April 13, closely trailed by 11°C at 27% and 13°C at 16.5%, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international models, which project maximums of 11–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds. This positioning stems from a persistent early-April cold snap, with recent days recording highs near 9°C on April 8 and around 8–10°C on April 11 amid northerly cold air advection suppressing temperatures well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, signaling low uncertainty, though minor model shifts could occur with tomorrow's 12Z updates ahead of observed measurements at Esenboğa Airport.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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