Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 37.5% implied probability to a 14°C high in Munich on April 12, closely tracking the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble projections clustering around 14-16°C under mild high-pressure ridging. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours highlight this positioning, with spreads of 11-16°C stemming from uncertainties in variable cloud cover, frontal timing, and light southerly flows limiting stronger warming. Historical mid-April highs average 13°C, providing climatological context for the tight race with 13°C (23.5%) and 15°C or higher (17.5%). Overnight forecast updates from DWD could sharpen these odds before resolution via official airport observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Munich on April 12?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 12?
14°C 37%
13°C 26%
15°C or higher 18%
12°C 11.1%
$73,706 Vol.
$73,706 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
7%
12°C
11%
13°C
26%
14°C
37%
15°C or higher
18%
14°C 37%
13°C 26%
15°C or higher 18%
12°C 11.1%
$73,706 Vol.
$73,706 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
7%
12°C
11%
13°C
26%
14°C
37%
15°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 8, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 37.5% implied probability to a 14°C high in Munich on April 12, closely tracking the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble projections clustering around 14-16°C under mild high-pressure ridging. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours highlight this positioning, with spreads of 11-16°C stemming from uncertainties in variable cloud cover, frontal timing, and light southerly flows limiting stronger warming. Historical mid-April highs average 13°C, providing climatological context for the tight race with 13°C (23.5%) and 15°C or higher (17.5%). Overnight forecast updates from DWD could sharpen these odds before resolution via official airport observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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