NiMet's latest seasonal climate prediction for 2026 flags above-average temperatures across Nigeria, driving trader consensus toward 34–36°C highs for Lagos on April 11 amid the dry-to-rainy season transition, where daytime warmth persists despite increasing humidity from the Atlantic. Forecast model ensembles, including NiMet bulletins for April 9–11, project sunny mornings yielding to possible afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover over southern regions, capping solar insolation and creating tight uncertainty between outcomes—34°C leads slightly due to historical April averages around 32°C moderated by sea breezes, while 35–36°C reflect potential for prolonged clear skies. Key differentiators include sea breeze strength and convective timing, with intraday observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport and afternoon NiMet updates poised to sharpen probabilities before the typical 2–4 p.m. peak.