Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the last 24 hours, drive trader consensus toward a 13°C high in Ankara on March 26, with 33.5% implied probability edging out 14°C (24.5%) and 12°C (23.0%). These closely matched outcomes reflect model spread amid a weak high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia, where slight variations in afternoon cloud cover and boundary layer mixing could cap peaks at 12-14°C. Ankara's continental climate typically sees March diurnal maxima around 12-15°C, but current soil moisture deficits from prior dry spells favor warmer readings, per Turkish Meteorological Service data. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution clues, as historical precedents show 1-2°C forecast refinements common this close to event day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
13°C 32%
14°C 25%
12°C 23%
11°C 12%
$11,012 Vol.
$11,012 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
23%
13°C
32%
14°C
25%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 32%
14°C 25%
12°C 23%
11°C 12%
$11,012 Vol.
$11,012 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
23%
13°C
32%
14°C
25%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the last 24 hours, drive trader consensus toward a 13°C high in Ankara on March 26, with 33.5% implied probability edging out 14°C (24.5%) and 12°C (23.0%). These closely matched outcomes reflect model spread amid a weak high-pressure ridge over central Anatolia, where slight variations in afternoon cloud cover and boundary layer mixing could cap peaks at 12-14°C. Ankara's continental climate typically sees March diurnal maxima around 12-15°C, but current soil moisture deficits from prior dry spells favor warmer readings, per Turkish Meteorological Service data. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution clues, as historical precedents show 1-2°C forecast refinements common this close to event day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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