Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Beijing's highest temperature on March 20 clustering tightly between 14°C and 17°C, with mean outputs near 15°C, fueling the even 40.5% market-implied probabilities across 13-20°C outcomes amid model spread from variable cloud cover and weak frontal influences. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows March 20 averages of 13-15°C since 2000, but urban heat island effects and southerly winds could push toward 16-18°C if clear skies dominate, as hinted in recent 00Z runs. Trader caution reflects 24-48 hour forecast uncertainty, with diurnal max typically 2-3pm local time; real-time observations will sharpen resolution. Lower odds below 13°C account for slim chances of lingering cold air advection.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Peking am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Peking am 20. März?
13°C 41%
14°C 41%
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
10°C oder weniger
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
40%
13°C
41%
14°C
41%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
41%
18°C
41%
19°C
41%
20°C oder höher
41%
13°C 41%
14°C 41%
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
10°C oder weniger
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
40%
13°C
41%
14°C
41%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
41%
18°C
41%
19°C
41%
20°C oder höher
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Beijing's highest temperature on March 20 clustering tightly between 14°C and 17°C, with mean outputs near 15°C, fueling the even 40.5% market-implied probabilities across 13-20°C outcomes amid model spread from variable cloud cover and weak frontal influences. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows March 20 averages of 13-15°C since 2000, but urban heat island effects and southerly winds could push toward 16-18°C if clear skies dominate, as hinted in recent 00Z runs. Trader caution reflects 24-48 hour forecast uncertainty, with diurnal max typically 2-3pm local time; real-time observations will sharpen resolution. Lower odds below 13°C account for slim chances of lingering cold air advection.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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