Latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Chicago on March 25 project high temperatures clustering in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, fueling trader consensus around 52-59°F ranges at 16-17% each, while the 24.1% implied odds for 68°F or higher reflect outlier GFS runs showing stronger southerly winds and 850mb warmth advection potentially amplifying a ridging pattern. Differentiating factors include shortwave trough timing—earlier passage favors cooler 52-53°F outcomes, while delayed progression boosts 64-67°F via persistent warm fronts—and soil moisture deficits from recent mild spells enhancing daytime heating. Historical March 25 highs average 48°F, but ongoing El Niño residuals support above-normal risks, with NWS point forecast near 58°F as key resolution pivot amid model spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 25. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 25. März?
68°F oder höher 22.5%
52-53°F 19%
58-59°F 16%
60-61°F 13%
49°F oder darunter
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
16%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
12%
68°F oder höher
22%
68°F oder höher 22.5%
52-53°F 19%
58-59°F 16%
60-61°F 13%
49°F oder darunter
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
16%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
12%
68°F oder höher
22%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Chicago on March 25 project high temperatures clustering in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, fueling trader consensus around 52-59°F ranges at 16-17% each, while the 24.1% implied odds for 68°F or higher reflect outlier GFS runs showing stronger southerly winds and 850mb warmth advection potentially amplifying a ridging pattern. Differentiating factors include shortwave trough timing—earlier passage favors cooler 52-53°F outcomes, while delayed progression boosts 64-67°F via persistent warm fronts—and soil moisture deficits from recent mild spells enhancing daytime heating. Historical March 25 highs average 48°F, but ongoing El Niño residuals support above-normal risks, with NWS point forecast near 58°F as key resolution pivot amid model spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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