Trader consensus strongly favors a high of 23°C or higher in Mexico City on April 12, with 90.5% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), which project maximum temperatures of 25–27°C in the Valle de México amid stable high-pressure conditions and the ongoing dry season. April climatological norms reinforce this, with average daily highs around 26°C based on decades of observational data from Benito Juárez International Airport, where dips below 23°C are rare outside anomalous cool fronts. Current model runs show minimal precipitation risk and warm advection from the north, supporting trader positioning. Realistic challenges include an unexpected mid-level trough introducing cloud cover or isolated showers, potentially capping highs at 22°C, though SMN updates through April 11 will refine this outlook with new radiosonde and satellite data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 12?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 12?
23°C or higher 91%
22°C 5.3%
14°C <1%
21°C <1%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
91%
23°C or higher 91%
22°C 5.3%
14°C <1%
21°C <1%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
91%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors a high of 23°C or higher in Mexico City on April 12, with 90.5% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), which project maximum temperatures of 25–27°C in the Valle de México amid stable high-pressure conditions and the ongoing dry season. April climatological norms reinforce this, with average daily highs around 26°C based on decades of observational data from Benito Juárez International Airport, where dips below 23°C are rare outside anomalous cool fronts. Current model runs show minimal precipitation risk and warm advection from the north, supporting trader positioning. Realistic challenges include an unexpected mid-level trough introducing cloud cover or isolated showers, potentially capping highs at 22°C, though SMN updates through April 11 will refine this outlook with new radiosonde and satellite data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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