Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint a daytime high of 13°C in Milan on March 26, anchoring trader sentiment with 35.5% implied odds, as mild high-pressure ridging over the Alps delivers seasonal norms amid light southerly flow. Historical late-March averages from the Italian Aeronautica Militare (12-14°C) align closely, with current 500mb charts showing geopotential height anomalies favoring stability over volatility. Today's 12Z model runs edged probabilities toward 12-14°C by resolving minor convective uncertainties via satellite-derived cloud cover and radiosonde data, while low-confidence outliers like 17°C+ reflect rare warm advection risks. Upcoming 00Z updates could refine these market-implied odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Milan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 26?
13°C 34%
12°C 26%
14°C 21%
11°C 12.6%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
13%
12°C
26%
13°C
34%
14°C
21%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 34%
12°C 26%
14°C 21%
11°C 12.6%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
13%
12°C
26%
13°C
34%
14°C
21%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint a daytime high of 13°C in Milan on March 26, anchoring trader sentiment with 35.5% implied odds, as mild high-pressure ridging over the Alps delivers seasonal norms amid light southerly flow. Historical late-March averages from the Italian Aeronautica Militare (12-14°C) align closely, with current 500mb charts showing geopotential height anomalies favoring stability over volatility. Today's 12Z model runs edged probabilities toward 12-14°C by resolving minor convective uncertainties via satellite-derived cloud cover and radiosonde data, while low-confidence outliers like 17°C+ reflect rare warm advection risks. Upcoming 00Z updates could refine these market-implied odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen