Trader sentiment heavily favors a high of 66°F or higher in New York City on March 26, with 79.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and NWS forecasts projecting midday highs of 67-70°F at Central Park amid a strengthening upper-level ridge fostering mild southerly flow. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show over 80% agreement on above-normal temperatures, well exceeding the late-March climatological average of 54°F, supported by recent soundings indicating low-level moisture and minimal cold air advection. This morning's 12z model runs further boosted the warm signal, reducing odds for cooler outcomes like 64-65°F (10.5%), though urban heat island effects and exact diurnal timing introduce minor uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on March 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 26?
66°F or higher 80%
64-65°F 11%
62-63°F 3.6%
60-61°F 1.5%
$32,469 Vol.
$32,469 Vol.
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
11%
66°F or higher
80%
66°F or higher 80%
64-65°F 11%
62-63°F 3.6%
60-61°F 1.5%
$32,469 Vol.
$32,469 Vol.
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
11%
66°F or higher
80%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors a high of 66°F or higher in New York City on March 26, with 79.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and NWS forecasts projecting midday highs of 67-70°F at Central Park amid a strengthening upper-level ridge fostering mild southerly flow. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show over 80% agreement on above-normal temperatures, well exceeding the late-March climatological average of 54°F, supported by recent soundings indicating low-level moisture and minimal cold air advection. This morning's 12z model runs further boosted the warm signal, reducing odds for cooler outcomes like 64-65°F (10.5%), though urban heat island effects and exact diurnal timing introduce minor uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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