Latest NOAA forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, drive trader consensus toward NYC's March 28 high clustering in the 42-45°F range, with 44-45°F edging ahead at 26% implied probability amid slight warming trends in recent runs. A persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast funnels cool Canadian air southward, capping highs below seasonal norms of 48°F, while light southerly winds could mix boundary layers enough to nudge peaks into 44-45°F versus stickier 42-43°F under cloudier skies. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon insolation—clearer conditions favor the warmer bin—and Central Park station's microclimate sensitivity to Hudson Valley drainage flows; upcoming 12z model updates may sharpen odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 28. März?
Höchste Temperatur in NYC am 28. März?
44-45°F 26%
42-43°F 25%
40-41°F 22%
48-49°F 13%
35°F oder niedriger
2%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
26%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
4%
54°F oder höher
3%
44-45°F 26%
42-43°F 25%
40-41°F 22%
48-49°F 13%
35°F oder niedriger
2%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
26%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
4%
54°F oder höher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, drive trader consensus toward NYC's March 28 high clustering in the 42-45°F range, with 44-45°F edging ahead at 26% implied probability amid slight warming trends in recent runs. A persistent upper-level trough over the Northeast funnels cool Canadian air southward, capping highs below seasonal norms of 48°F, while light southerly winds could mix boundary layers enough to nudge peaks into 44-45°F versus stickier 42-43°F under cloudier skies. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon insolation—clearer conditions favor the warmer bin—and Central Park station's microclimate sensitivity to Hudson Valley drainage flows; upcoming 12z model updates may sharpen odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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