Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIA-04 Wahlsieger
IA-04 Wahlsieger
$13,018 Vol.
$13,018 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
94%
Demokratische Partei
6%
$13,018 Vol.
$13,018 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$6,146 Vol.
94%
Demokratische Partei
$6,872 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$13,018Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$13,018Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th Congressional District carries an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, making it one of the most reliably Republican seats nationwide and underpinning the strong trader consensus behind the Republican nominee. The open-seat race follows incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship, with Chris McGowan securing the GOP nomination unopposed after receiving a presidential endorsement and prevailing in the June 2 primary. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, who won his party's primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. A late scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unexpectedly elevated Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial movement from current baselines to alter the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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