**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Amsterdam on September 10, 2026, with the daily low most likely falling between 10–12°C.** High pressure building after September 9 thunderstorms has produced mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds overnight, favoring radiative cooling under seasonal late-summer conditions. Official guidance from GFS and comparable runs shows overnight lows around 51–54°F (10.5–12°C), consistent with the 1991–2020 average minimum of 11.3°C for the date. The closely matched market probabilities—34.5% for 6°C or below versus 32% for exactly 11°C and 22.5% for 10°C—reflect genuine ensemble spread rather than a strong cold signal. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any residual cloud cover, dew-point depression, and urban heat-island effects versus airport observations; even modest increases in low-level moisture or wind could hold the minimum above 11°C, while clearer, calmer conditions could push it to 10°C or slightly lower. Historical extremes for September 10 range from 3.5°C (1986) to much warmer values, but current synoptic setup shows no analog for sub-9°C readings. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any overnight updates from KNMI or ECMWF, which will refine the exact minimum before resolution.