**Current forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate Toronto’s overnight low on September 11 will likely settle in the 13–15 °C range under clear skies and light northwest winds, consistent with the historical average low of 14.6 °C.** Clear conditions promote strong radiative cooling after sunset, while modest wind speeds limit boundary-layer mixing and allow temperatures to drop to the seasonal norm without significant advection of warmer or colder air. Recent model consensus shows little spread, with dew points near 9–11 °C supporting efficient cooling but no frost risk. The tight clustering of market probabilities across 10–15 °C reflects remaining uncertainty in the precise minimum due to urban heat-island effects, exact wind shifts, and minor timing differences in observational data, rather than any major synoptic shift. No extreme cold-air outbreak or anomalous warmth is present, keeping lower-tail outcomes (≤9 °C) at negligible implied odds.