Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 10°C for Buenos Aires on August 31, consistent with late-winter climatology where overnight radiative cooling under high pressure and light easterly winds typically produces lows of 9–12°C. Trader sentiment remains closely balanced between the 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover, dew-point depression, or wind speed can alter the exact low by several degrees, while ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the mean. Historical analogs for late August confirm that clear, calm nights favor the colder tail, whereas any increase in moisture or mixing pushes values higher. Final model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities ahead of resolution.